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他说,新措施禁止私宅屋主同时购买组屋,并允许月入8000至1万的夹心层申请私人组屋,少了这些有钱人抢购普通组屋,剩余的买家大多是真正有需求的人,“他们没有能力支付太高的溢价,久而久之,卖方肯定会作出让步,逐渐降低溢价。”

他预测溢价将在6个月内跌10%,到明年则可能跌多20%。

财务规划师吴加万也说:“合理的溢价应该是2至3万元,超出就不正常。楼价短期内会不会下降,目前说不准,但少了投机者,超高溢价肯定成为历史。”

市场看法分2派

看跌:短期内可使楼价下跌

会涨:限制5年才能卖屋,供应量减少,屋价上涨

市场看法分两派,一派认为降温措施短期内可使楼价下跌,另一派则认为5年才能卖组屋的限制,将导致供应量减少,最终屋价上涨!

林永富指出,降温措施在今年内会使整体楼价降低5%,到明年则可能降低10%。

他说:“这样的价格下跌幅度不算大,以一间30万元的单位为例,下跌5%,最后售价仍是28万5000元。”

资深股票评论员王金福则认为,新措施可能导致房价几年后再度攀升。

他说:“为避免非津贴组屋被炒卖,政府规定购买这类组屋必须住满5年才能转售或出租,而不是之前的3年。这表示几年后市场上转售组屋的供应可能减少,但购买或租用转售组屋的永久居民人数却可能增加,需求上升,楼价也会被推高。”

 

 
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